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Young Voters Cooling towards Democrats
WASHINGTON
(AP) February 24, 2010
—
Whither the youth
vote? A year after backing Barack Obama
by an overwhelming 2-to-1 ratio, young
adults are quickly cooling toward
Democrats amid dissatisfaction over the
lack of change in Washington and an
escalating war in Afghanistan.
A study by the Pew Research Center,
being released Wednesday, highlights the
eroding support from 18-to-29 year olds
whose strong turnout in November 2008
was touted by some demographers as the
start of a new Democratic movement.
The findings are significant because
they offer further proof the diverse
coalition of voters Obama cobbled
together in 2008
—
including high numbers of first-timers,
minorities and youths
—
are not Democratic Party voters who can
necessarily be counted on.
While young adults remain decidedly more
liberal, the survey found the Democratic
advantage among 18-to-29 year olds has
substantially narrowed
—
from a record 62 percent identifying as
Democrat vs. 30 percent for the GOP in
2008, down to 54 percent vs. 40 percent
last December. It was the largest
percentage point jump in those who
identified or leaned Republican among
all the voting age groups.
Young adults' voting enthusiasm also
crumbled.
During the presidential election,
turnout among 18-to-29 year olds was the
highest in years, making up roughly 20
percent of the voters in many states
including Virginia and New Jersey, due
in part to high participation from young
blacks and Hispanics.
That percentage, however, dropped by
half for the gubernatorial races in
those states last November where
Republicans celebrated wins as black
groups pushed Obama to do more to soften
the economic blow from mortgage
foreclosures and Latinos saw little
progress on immigration reform. Young
adults were also the least likely of any
age group to identify themselves as
regular voters.
"This is a generation of young adults
who made a big splash politically in
2008," said Paul Taylor, executive vice
president of the Pew Research Center and
co-author of the report. "But a year and
a half later, they show signs of
disillusionment with the president
—
and, perhaps, with politics itself."
Democrats saw evidence of this last
November, when Republicans toppled
Democrats from power in governor's races
in New Jersey and Virginia. Young,
minority and new voters who Obama pulled
into the fold in 2008 didn't turn out at
the same levels for the two Democratic
candidates. The same thing happened in
the Massachusetts Senate race last
month.
The lesson: Neither party has a hold on
18-to-29 year olds. They tend to vote
far less than other age groups, yet they
have proven to be a powerful
constituency if they are persuaded to
vote. And that means the race is on by
both Republicans and Democrats to make
inroads into the next generation of
voters.
Analysts say the findings reflect the
fast pace at which young voters live
their lives, and both parties should
take note of their fickleness.
"If you don't respond to their needs,
hopes or dreams quickly, they're gone,"
said Matthew Dowd, an independent
political analyst who was a strategist
in former President George W. Bush's
2004 re-election campaign. "They'll
leave the playing field or switch their
allegiance."
"They haven't become Republicans and
they aren't solid Democrats. They're
just looking for leaders who are where
they are and will deliver," Dowd said.
"Both parties have to be cognizant of
the volatility of that group."
According to the Pew survey, large
numbers of young adults said they
personally liked the president but were
dissatisfied with his rate of progress
in changing Washington, such as
improving the economy and fixing health
care. Just 46 percent of 18-to-29 year
olds said they believed Obama had
changed Washington, compared to 48
percent who said he had not. Only baby
boomers were more cynical, with 52
percent saying Obama had not changed the
way things work in Washington.
The young adults also were the only age
group in which more disapproved than
approved of Obama's handling of the war
in Afghanistan. Only 34 percent
supported his decision in December to
send an additional 30,000 U.S. troops to
the region, while 50 percent
disapproved.
Still, when asked why Obama hadn't done
more to bring change, young adults were
somewhat forgiving, with about 56
percent blaming the president's
opponents and special interests; only 30
percent said Obama was the one at fault
for not trying hard enough.
The findings are part of Pew's broad
portrait of the so-called millennial
generation, the children of baby boomers
who came of age in the new millennium.
Demographers believe this generation can
reshape U.S. culture and politics
because of their demographic size and
political outlook.
Making up nearly one-fourth of U.S.
voters, 18-to-29 year olds are less
religious, more racially diverse and
liberal on social issues such as gay
rights. They are steeped in digital
technology and social media, and are
strong believers in the view that the
government should do more to solve
problems.
For example:
Nearly two-thirds admit to texting while
driving, and more than 8 in 10 sleep
with their cell phones by their bed.
Nearly 4 in 10 have at least one tattoo;
about half of those people have two to
five tattoos. Roughly 1 in 4 have a body
piercing in a place other than an
earlobe
—
six times the share of older adults.
About 37 percent of young adults are
unemployed or out of the workforce, the
highest share among this age group in
more than three decades. A record share
—
39.6 percent
—
was enrolled in college, and one in 8
millennials ages 22 and older say they
had "boomeranged" back into their
parents' home because of the recession.
The Pew survey is based on interviews
with 2,020 adults by cell phone or
landline from Jan. 14 to 27. The poll
has a margin of error of plus or minus 3
percentage points for all respondents,
higher for subgroups.
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