The
Number 1 Job
for Obama is to Create Jobs
WASHINGTON & SANTA FE, NM
(By
Fareed Zakaria)
August 18, 2011 — Democrats are
finally up for a fight — with President Obama.
Having despaired Obama gave in to the Tea Party on the debt deal, they now
criticize him as too cautious in his proposals to boost American jobs.
They’re right Obama should present a sharp distinction to the public between his
efforts and the Republican Party’s utter passivity in the face of a national
employment crisis.
But perhaps Obama realizes the most important factor that
will help his reelection — and Democratic prospects more generally — is a rise
in employment.
And to have any impact on the actual economy, Obama needs proposals that can get
through Congress, not ones that sound good on TV.
The problem before the country is more acute than people realize.
It goes beyond the indebtedness issues that are surely depressing the recovery.
In June, the McKinsey Global Institute published an eye-opening report called
“An economy that works: Job creation and America’s future.” It points out that
for 20 years, America has had huge difficulties creating jobs. After every
recession since the Second World War, once gross domestic product recovered to
pre-recession levels, employment also returned to pre-recession levels within
about six months.
Until 1990. In the recession that began in 1990, it took 15 months for jobs to
come back after GDP had recovered. In the recession of 2001, it took 39 months
for jobs to come back.
And now? Since the start of this year, American GDP has returned to its
pre-crisis levels — but with 6.8 million fewer workers. At the current rate of
job creation, it will take 60 months — five years! — before employment returns
to pre-recession levels.
Even these numbers mask the problem. The Nobel Prize-winning economist Michael
Spence has found that of the 27 million jobs created between 1990 and 2008, 40
percent were in government and health care — sectors that can’t keep growing at
their previous pace. Meanwhile, employment in the tradable sector of the U.S.
economy, the sector that produces goods and services that can be consumed
anywhere, such as manufactured products, engineering and consulting services —
which accounted for more than 34 million jobs in 1990 — grew by just 600,000
jobs over the same 18-year period.
Why is this happening? Nobody knows for sure, but it does seem as though the
timing coincides with the two great tidal waves that have been powering the
global economy since 1990. The first is information technology, which expanded
from a narrow, data-processing function in the 1980s to streamline every aspect
of every business. Today, computer programs that do conceptual searches are used
at law firms to read and code documents, replacing the dozens of young
associates who used to be hired and paid handsomely to do the same job.
The second big shift is, of course, globalization, which has created a worldwide
supply that allows companies to make new investments in regions where labor is
cheap and newly emerging middle classes are eager for their products. The
results have been great for American companies, but these same forces place
enormous pressures on the American worker. The decline in American education has
left Americans less able to compete in a world in which skills are the only path
to high-wage jobs. As Bill Gross, the founder of the world’s largest bond fund,
Pimco, succinctly put it, “Our labor force is too expensive and poorly educated
for today’s marketplace.”
If we’re going to solve this problem, it will take a determination to make jobs
Job One. Everything we do as a country should be geared toward the central task
of boosting employment. Some of this will involve government spending. An
infrastructure bank that uses current low interest rates, includes the private
sector and chooses projects based on merit rather than patronage is one of the
best ideas to come out of Washington in years.
Obama should take his proposals
to the country and press for a project to rebuild America.
But there are many cost-free policies that could boost jobs. Tourism is one of
the largest growth industries in America, and yet because of exaggerated fears
of terrorism, bureaucracy and politics, we have lost market share in global
tourism over the past decade. We should make it much easier for tourists to get
visas and work hard to make them feel welcome. They are, in the words of
Starwood Hotels CEO Frits van Paasschen, a walking stimulus program.
The key is to subordinate politics to a national goal of job creation. Right
now, a smart program to rationalize the patent process, which could unleash
thousands of start-ups, is languishing in Congress not because of some
principled opposition but because of turf battles between congressional
committees. We can’t keep doing this.