Rating the Republican Pledge Promises

WASHINGTON (By Jonathan Allen, Politico) September 26, 2010 ― The Republican “Pledge to America” is more than just a rhetorical tool for the 2010 campaign trail; it’s a substantive list of ideas that would get serious debate if the GOP wins the House on Nov. 2.

But is any of it realistic?

Repealing health care is a serious long shot, but rolling back the so-called 1099 regulation seems like a layup. Freezing spending would be tough, while a compromise on tax cuts actually has a shot. And certain congressional reforms — like cutting Hill operating budgets — should be easy.

Republicans avoided the most contentious debates over reforming entitlements, specific immigration policies and most social issues, so they’re off the hook on any promises in those realms.

Below, POLITICO rates the odds of success for House Republicans on three items from each of the five issue sets contained in the pledge. Items scoring 1 have the worst chances of implementation — with a special zero exception for repealing Obamacare — and those scoring 5 have the easiest track.

Taxes/Regulation

Stop all tax increases slated to go into effect in 2011: This will require action by Congress and the president. It is highly unlikely that President Barack Obama would bend on upper-income tax increases — for households making more than $250,000 per year.

That said, if the lower and middle brackets haven’t been taken care of by next January, Republicans could surely win majorities in both chambers and a presidential signature to re-lower those rates. The estate tax also reverts to 55 percent next year. Republicans aren’t likely to be able to keep it at zero — the current level — but there’s a sweet spot somewhere in between.

Long-term capital gains rates and dividend income are scheduled to revert to their 2002 levels, meaning capital gains for upper-income earners would jump from 15 percent to 20 percent and dividends would be taxed as regular income — as high as 39.6 percent, depending on each taxpayer’s bracket. It seems likely that investors will be able to make the argument that such significant jumps could impede economic recovery, and a legislative “fix” bridging the divide or extending current rates could attract majority support in both chambers.

POLITICO score on tax cut promise: 3

Require congressional approval for any regulations that cost more than $100 million to implement: There’s almost zero chance that any president would sign such a limitation on his executive rule-making authority — nor would the president’s party allow it to go through in the Senate. Moreover, it’s not clear how the accounting would be done or by which entity.

POLITICO score on $100M regulation promise: 1

Repeal the new 1099 rule requiring businesses to report to the IRS any purchases exceeding $600: The IRS and lawmakers on both sides of the aisle see the provision, included in the health care overhaul, as overly onerous. It will be repealed, if not by this Congress, then by the next.

Spending Cuts

Return to 2008 domestic spending levels: Here’s where the biggest fight with Obama would most likely occur — a battle over the narrow part of the budget that represents domestic discretionary spending, leaving aside the behemoth entitlements of Medicare and Social Security, as well as annual spending for seniors, veterans and the military. Can it happen? It’s possible. In this anti-spending environment, the president will be hard-pressed in an election cycle when he’s on the ballot to argue for higher domestic spending. But cutting spending by $100 billion in this area of the budget, as Republicans plan to do, would cause tremendous pain for schools, hospitals and other services that Americans rely on. There’s always wiggle room on appropriations.

POLITICO score on restoring spending to 2008 levels: 3

Cut Congress’s budget: done. Republicans have done it before, and they’ll do it again. Don’t expect it to save taxpayers much money. The bang for the buck is minimal — and for voters who want to see stronger oversight of the Obama administration, cutting Congress’s resources might seem counterproductive. But it’s easy enough to do, and it sounds great in a campaign ad.

POLITICO score on cutting Congress’s budget: 5

Implement hiring freeze for federal government: Republicans say, except for security employees, the federal government work force wouldn’t be allowed to grow. Try getting that through the Senate and the White House, particularly at a time when government jobs look more attractive to those who have been laid off.

POLITICO score on hiring freeze: 2

Health Care

Repeal Obama health overhaul: Good luck. That’s not happening. No matter how good the election is for Republicans, there won’t be a two-thirds majority in both chambers to override the summarily delivered presidential veto on this one — nor the 60 votes in the Senate needed to overcome a certain filibuster.

POLITICO score on repealing health law: 0

Enact medical liability reform: The trial lawyers hate it, and Democrats have resisted limiting lawsuits against health providers. But Obama embraced the idea — if with a soft hug — in an address to Congress, and it will have its time in some form before long. It’s a relatively easy place for the president and House Republicans to show they can work across party lines.

POLITICO score on liability reform: 4

Expand health savings accounts: Created as part of the 2003 Medicare prescription-drug law, HSAs allow those who buy high-deductible health plans to put aside savings tax free to pay for medical expenses in future years. It’s proved popular with some Americans, and it seems possible that a modest expansion of the accounts could occur.

POLITICO score on HSAs: 3

Congressional Reforms

Read the bill: It’s a favorite taunt of proponents and opponents of particular legislation. The truth is, most members of Congress don’t read actual bill language before voting on legislation — typically summaries of the provisions are more productive reads. Republicans are promising to publish legislation online three days before voting on it. That said, it’s an easy rule to institute, and it doesn’t require anything other than a majority vote of the House — but you can certainly expect the rule to be waived from time to time.

POLITICO score on reading the bill: 5

Allow spending-cut amendments: Democrats have been increasingly fearful of bringing appropriations bills to the floor of the House for a variety of reasons, including the headache of GOP amendments. Republicans promise to allow any member to offer spending-cut amendments to appropriations bills — a promise that actually raises the prospect that they, too, will break from tradition and prevent certain kinds of appropriations amendments from being offered on the floor. That said, spending-cut amendments could cause chaos for Republicans if clever Democrats offer amendments that divide the GOP.

POLITICO score on spending-cut amendments: 5 to start, falling to a 2 after some experience.

Advance legislation one issue at a time: Party leaders have increasingly made use of omnibus bills that combine seemingly unrelated issues. The idea is that an unpopular policy can be dragged across the finish line if it is combined with something that members want to vote for. Technically, House rules already provide for members to call for a division of unrelated items in a bill and separate votes. But the majority can overcome such requests pretty easily. Such a rule is easy to put in place, but it will be very hard to follow and could be waived at any time.

POLITICO score on single-issue voting: 3

National Security

“Clean” war-spending bills: Republicans promise that war-spending bills won’t be delayed by extraneous domestic spending. Practice shows that disaster recovery and other necessary items are often tacked onto fast-moving, must-pass military bills. But that doesn’t mean they have to be held up. The Senate may, however, object to such “clean” bills.

POLITICO score on “clean” war spending: 4

Detainee policy: The pledge includes a section on creating a detainee policy that ensures terrorists are tried in military courts, not civilian courts. The Obama administration has displayed mixed feelings on where detainees should be tried — and which ones should be tried in civilian or military venues. Forcing Obama’s hand could be tough to accomplish, but neither he nor his fellow Democrats in Congress will want to be portrayed as coddling accused enemies of the United States. Can the House pass it under Republican rule? Sure. Will it become law as military-courts-only? Probably not. But it’s a conundrum that may call for congressional action.

POLITICO score on detainee policy: 2

Fully fund missile defense: This is another flash point with Obama, who has a clear dedication to arms reduction. Expect a fight on this one if Congress funds missile defense at levels higher than those desired by the administration.

POLITICO score on missile defense: 3