Economists Outline how to Create Jobs
WASHINGTON & SANTA
FE, NM (By
Paul Davidson, USA
Today)
September 3, 2011―
More than two years
after the Great
Recession ended,
some 14 million
Americans are out of
work, nearly half of
them for six months
or longer.
What's worse, this
bleak picture shows
no signs of
brightening soon.
Economic growth is
expected to plod
along at a
lackluster 2.5% pace
next year, leaving
the jobless rate
hovering just below
9% by the end of
2012.
August's
unemployment rate
remained at 9.1%,
unchanged from July.
And so for the
second time since
early 2009, the
government is
looking to
jump-start a job
market caught
between tight-fisted
consumers and wary
businesses.
President Obama on
Thursday is expected
to propose more
government spending
on construction
projects, aid to
budget-strapped
states and new tax
credits to encourage
hiring, among other
strategies.
Republicans have
signaled they're
firmly opposed to
another large
economic stimulus
that adds to the
$1.3 trillion
deficit. They prefer
less-costly steps to
promote job growth
long term, such as
cutting the
corporate tax rate
and streamlining
regulations.
Think tanks,
economists, industry
groups and lawmakers
answer a simple
question:
What can Washington
do
to get America back
to work again?
Repair roads,
bridges, schools
Fixing the nation's
aging infrastructure
would create jobs
more quickly than
tax cuts in as
little as a few
months and meet
critical needs that
must be addressed
eventually.
Transportation
bottlenecks are
costing the country
about $200 billion a
year, or 1.6% of
economic output,
according to a study
by a bipartisan
coalition of state
and local
politicians. It
would take $2.2
trillion over the
next five years to
upgrade the USA's
roads, highways,
seaports, rail lines
and bridges, the
American Society of
Civil Engineers
estimates.
With yields on
10-year Treasury
bonds at about 2%,
borrowing costs for
the U.S. government
are as low as
they've ever been.
"There's never been
a more opportune
time to invest in
infrastructure,"
says Andrew
Fieldhouse, policy
analyst for the
liberal Economic
Policy Institute (EPI).
To make a tangible
impact, Congress
could go big,
spending $200
billion each of the
next two years.
Fieldhouse says that
would create more
than 2 million jobs
and reduce
unemployment about
0.8 percentage
points. While that
may seem ambitious
in an era of fiscal
austerity, each
dollar spent
generates $1.44 in
economic output,
according to EPI and
Moody's Analytics.
As a result, about
half the money would
come back to the
government through
increased tax
revenue. Some funds
also could be used
to build out a smart
electric grid, bring
broadband to rural
areas and upgrade
water systems.
Political and budget
realities, of
course, may mean
shrinking grand
visions. A growing
chorus of economists
are calling for a
more targeted plan
to upgrade the
nation's schools
with projects such
as fixing up
playgrounds,
removing mold and
installing solar
panels. Unlike
highway or rail
improvements that
take months to
launch, cash could
be funneled to
states and school
districts within 30
days through
existing funding
formulas, and much
of the work could be
done in the winter.
And since the
projects are more
labor-intensive,
they would largely
pay for salaries
rather than heavy
capital equipment.
Such a plan could
draw wide public
support, says Jared
Bernstein, former
economic policy
adviser for Vice
President Biden and
now a senior fellow
at the Center on
Budget and Policy
Priorities. "These
are the public
schools in our
communities where we
drop our kids off."
A broad jobs bill by
Jan Schakowsky,
D-Ill., calls for
spending $100
billion to create
650,000 school
construction and
maintenance jobs in
two years.
Yet anything that
looks even remotely
like the $800
billion economic
stimulus might face
an uphill fight in
Congress.
A more politically
palatable option
that's gaining some
traction is an
infrastructure bank
that would provide
loans and loan
guarantees to
private firms that
could recoup their
investments through
highway tolls or
local sales taxes.
Obama has pushed the
idea. And a bill by
Sens. John Kerry,
D-Mass., and Kay
Bailey Hutchison,
R-Texas, would
leverage $10 billion
to $160 billion in
public financing to
generate up to four
times as much in
private investment.
U.S. Chamber of
Commerce CEO Tom
Donohue this week
said, "There is lots
of private money
there" to invest in
infrastructure
improvement.
Here's the rub: Such
a bank could take at
least a year or two
to get up and
running, so it
wouldn't provide the
kind of short-term
stimulus needed to
quickly jump-start
the anemic job
market.
Give states a
helping hand
Since early 2010,
budget-crunched
state and local
governments have cut
425,000 jobs even
while private
employers have added
2.3 million. States
face budget
shortfalls totaling
$103 billion in the
current fiscal year,
helping to force an
additional 300,000
state and local
layoffs by the end
of 2012, according
to the Center for
Budget and Policy
Priorities and Mark
Zandi, chief
economist at Moody's
Analytics.
The government could
provide up to $20
billion to states to
save about 200,000
teaching and other
government jobs.
That's probably the
quickest way to prop
up payrolls, says
Michael Ettlinger,
vice president for
public policy at the
liberal Center for
American Progress. A
$50 billion program
would close half the
$97 billion deficit
states face for
Medicaid payments,
saving about 500,000
jobs, Fieldhouse
says.
Schakowsky's bill
would spend $227
billion to create
2.2 million jobs in
two years, at a
per-job cost of
about $50,000 a
year, all through
existing funding
programs that can
disburse the money
within weeks to
states and
localities. Besides
the school repair
projects, her plan
would hire about
350,000 teachers,
police officers and
firefighters, 40,000
health care workers
and 100,000 youths
to spruce up parks.
Add workers, at a
discount
If you want to boost
sales, cut the
price. That's
basically the idea
behind a tax credit
for each new
employee a business
hires over its
staffing level the
previous year. To
make an impact, the
government should
offer a per-employee
credit of $10,000 as
well as 10% of
increased wages for
two years, says
Michael Greenstone,
a senior fellow at
the Brookings
Institution.
"This is most
directly targeted at
the thing you want:
more employment," he
says.
A similar tax credit
last year didn't
appear to light a
fire under
employers. Those
that hired people
who were jobless at
least eight weeks
were exempt from the
6.2% Social Security
payroll tax.
Employers of 10.6
million workers from
February through
October 2010 were
eligible for the
credit, which saved
as much as $3,480
for the addition of
a $40,000-a-year
worker. But the
Treasury Department
acknowledges it
doesn't know how
many of those
workers would have
been hired anyway.
Both the U.S.
Chamber of Commerce
and the National
Federation of
Independent Business
oppose a hiring tax
credit, saying
companies add
workers because of
increased sales, not
temporary windfalls.
Yet a sizable credit
could nudge
companies thinking
of hiring but
hesitant to pull the
trigger amid
economic
uncertainty,
Greenstone says,
adding that last
year's credit was
too small. He also
would not limit
hiring to employees
who've been jobless
for a minimum period
as that discouraged
businesses that
simply wanted to
recruit the best
workers.
Studies found a
$4,500 tax credit in
1977 $14,400 in
2008 dollars
increased employment
by 3% at firms that
knew of the program
vs. others that
didn't, creating
700,000 jobs.
Greenstone estimates
that under his plan,
employers would add
about 6 million jobs
that would be
eligible for a tax
credit, about
900,000 of which
would not have been
created otherwise.
Share jobs to
save jobs
Perhaps the least
expensive way to
bolster payrolls is
through work
sharing, a program
that encourages
employers to avoid
layoffs by cutting
all workers' hours
instead. For
example, instead of
laying off 20% of
its staff, a company
could trim all
workers' hours by
20%. The government
then would make up
half the workers'
lost pay with
unemployment
insurance so it's
basically a wash or
a small expense for
state and federal
coffers.
"It keeps people
employed and at very
little cost," says
Dean Baker, chief
economist of the
Center for Economic
and Policy Research.
Twenty-two states
have work-sharing
programs, but
they're sparsely
used. Baker says a
federal initiative
would be better
publicized and could
give employers more
flexibility during
the program to
modify the number of
employees getting
reduced pay.
Although the
recession's
widespread job cuts
are over, businesses
are always laying
off some workers,
even when total
payrolls are
growing. An average
of about 650,000
workers a month this
year have been
temporarily laid
off, according to
the Bureau of Labor
Statistics.
If 10% of their
employers adopted
work sharing, 65,000
jobs a month could
be saved.
In Germany,
widespread adoption
of work sharing
helped lower
unemployment to 6.7%
from 7.1% before the
global downturn
despite economic
growth that has
lagged behind the
U.S.
Lower corporate
taxes
Many economists call
for cutting the
average 35% federal
corporate tax rate
to make the U.S.
more competitive in
a global economy.
The average tax rate
in Europe is 23%.
Chris Edwards,
senior fellow at the
conservative Cato
Institute, calls
cutting the rate to
25% "the single best
thing we could do"
to grow jobs. Obama
has said he wants to
reduce tax rates
while eliminating
loopholes and
deductions.
Trimming the rate to
22% would cost the
government $81
billion in lost
revenue but create
350,000
manufacturing jobs
directly by 2019 as
it prompts U.S. and
foreign companies to
open factories here
instead of overseas,
the non-partisan
Milken Institute
says. An additional
1.7 million jobs
would be added as
benefits ripple
through the economy,
Milken says.
Economists say it
could take a few
years for any tax
cuts to grow jobs.
But Aparna Mathur,
an economist for the
conservative
American Enterprise
Institute, says
creating certainty
about tax policies
could lead firms to
hire in the short
term.
Train the jobless
At least part of the
reason for the high
jobless rate is that
many laid-off
construction and
manufacturing
workers, for
example, lack the
skills for growing
jobs in heath care
and technology.
Thirty percent of
companies surveyed
by McKinsey Global
Institute say they
have had positions
unfilled for six
months or longer.
Darlene Miller, CEO
of Permac Industries
and a member of
Obama's Jobs and
Competitiveness
Council, is helping
spearhead a 16-week
course in advanced
manufacturing at two
Minnesota colleges.
The program, she
says, aims to
promote better
coordination among
colleges, businesses
and area career
centers to identify
and train workers.
Officials hope to
expand the
initiative across
the country in three
to six months,
Miller says.
The council, she
says, also wants to
help schools
graduate 10,000 more
engineering students
each year to meet a
dire shortage of
engineers. The panel
aims to raise $100
million in private
funding for
scholarships, launch
a media campaign to
trumpet engineering
careers and
encourage schools
with high graduation
rates to share their
strategies.
Cut red tape
The Chamber of
Commerce calls
regulatory
roadblocks that
delay construction,
environmental and
other permits "the
most significant
obstacles to new
hiring."
McKinsey says
"inconsistent and
sometimes lengthy"
reviews can add
months or years to
project development,
discouraging foreign
firms from locating
in the U.S.
Susan Lund,
McKinsey's research
head, says the
government should
allow one-stop
shopping so
companies can secure
various permits from
a single agency as
well as enterprise
zones in which many
permits would be
pre-approved.
It would be no
surprise if the
job-creation debate
bogs down in
political wrangling,
with Democrats
favoring new
stimulus and
Republicans
supporting tax cuts.
But Ross DeVol,
Milken's chief
research officer,
says any viable plan
must include both.
"We can't allow
ourselves just to be
in one or two camps
and believe those
are the only
prescriptions that
will work," he says.
"Think of it as
portfolio of stocks
and bonds. You
wouldn't want to
have all your
investments in one
particular area."









